Expected value (EV) is the average return per dollar spent on a ticket, after counting every prize tier and taxes. Every lottery has negative expected value — you lose money on average — but the size of the loss varies a lot by game and by jackpot.
How it's calculated
For each prize tier you multiply the prize by your probability of winning it, then add those up across every tier (including the jackpot), apply taxes, and divide by the ticket price. The result is cents of value returned per dollar. For example, if a $2 ticket returns an average of 50 cents of value, its expected value is 25¢ per $1 — meaning you lose about 75 cents per dollar on average.
| Outcome | Contribution to value per $1 |
|---|---|
| Jackpot (cash option ÷ odds, after tax) | varies with the jackpot |
| Every fixed lower-tier prize ÷ its odds | the steady "floor" of value |
| Total | cents returned per $1 spent |
Why it's always negative
Lotteries are designed to pay out less than they take in — the difference funds prizes already counted, plus state programs and operating costs. No legal lottery returns more than $1 of expected value per $1 over the long run. That's not a flaw to beat; it's the business model.
When EV is highest
The jackpot term grows as a prize rolls over, so EV rises with the jackpot. But at record highs, ticket sales surge, which raises the chance of splitting the jackpot and pulls the real EV back down. The sweet spot is a large jackpot before the frenzy — and even then it's still a losing bet. Our cash-vs-annuity and tax guides explain the two biggest drags on the jackpot term.
What NumbersIntel does with it
We compute value per $1 for every game with a published fixed-prize structure and rank them, so you can see which game is "least bad" on any given night. It's the number most lottery sites never show. Exactly how we compute it is on our methodology page.
Find the break-even jackpot
See how big a jackpot has to get before a ticket is a fair bet — and how taxes and splitting move that line.