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What Are the Odds of Winning the Lottery?

The real jackpot odds, how they're calculated, and what they actually mean.

The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 292,201,338 for Powerball, 1 in 290,472,336 for Mega Millions and 1 in 25,989,600 for Lotto America. These come straight from each game's number matrix — they're fixed, and they never change from one draw to the next.

The national games at a glance

GameMatrixJackpot oddsOdds of any prize
Powerball5 of 69 + 1 of 261 in 292,201,338~1 in 24.9
Mega Millions5 of 70 + 1 of 241 in 290,472,336~1 in 24
Lotto America5 of 52 + 1 of 101 in 25,989,600~1 in 9.6

How jackpot odds are calculated

Jackpot odds are pure combinatorics. For Powerball you pick 5 numbers from 69 and 1 from 26. The number of ways to choose 5 from 69 is C(69,5) = 11,238,513, and there are 26 possibilities for the Powerball, so the total number of equally likely outcomes is 11,238,513 × 26 = 292,201,338. Exactly one of them is the jackpot combination — hence 1 in 292,201,338. Every game on NumbersIntel shows its matrix, and we compute each prize tier's odds the same way.

What those odds actually mean

292 million is hard to picture. A few honest comparisons: you're far more likely to be struck by lightning in a given year, and if you bought one ticket for every Powerball draw, you'd expect to hit the jackpot roughly once every million years. None of that means "never" — somebody does win — but it's why the lottery is a negative-expected-value game and should be treated as entertainment, not an investment.

Lower-tier prizes are far easier

The "odds of any prize" column above is much friendlier because matching just the special ball, or a few main numbers, wins a small fixed prize. Those smaller wins are where most of a ticket's real expected value comes from — see each game page for the full tier-by-tier odds and the value-per-dollar math.

Why the odds never change

Each draw is an independent random event. No number is "due," buying a ticket every week doesn't improve your standing draw-to-draw, and no past pattern shifts the next outcome. We explain that in detail in do hot numbers win more often?

See the odds as a field of dots

One red dot is your win; the rest are losses. Pick a game and tier and watch how big the field really is.